Talking the Tropics With Mike: Gulf low to bring heavy rain along the Gulf Coast this week

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) The Caribbean remains an area that will need to be carefully monitored as some gradual tropical development will be possible from approximately Nov. 16th-24th - a historically a “hot spot” for late season development.

This time around it looks like gradual development with low pressure potentially emerging by the middle of next week a little east of Central America. General movement should be to the northeast, so a heads-up for Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola & possible Puerto Rico & parts of the Lesser Antilles.

Run to run inter-model continuity & agreement amongst the models is poor. The European model has been especially inconsistent while the GFS has been most insistent but also has been too quick to pop a system just about with each run of the model. So - at this point - stay tuned & up to date on the latest forecasts.

(2) nontropical low pressure is expected to form over the Western & Northwest Gulf over the next several days then move east/northeast. While tropical characteristics are not expected, there will be some heavy rain along the Gulf Coast & Southeast U.S. during the upcoming week.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean with plenty of warm water far below the surface in the Caribbean:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November (7 hurricanes so far, 19 tropical storms):

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Vince” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.: